Benazir Bhutto, Pakistan’s twice-before and almost-future prime minister, was assassinated in a way that will likely make her Pakistan’s John F. Kennedy—the hope for a better future cut down before it bloomed. For the United States, the consequences could be grave indeed.
For us, the timing of the post-assassination turmoil itself presents a problem. The spring thaw in the Hindu Kush usually heralds new offensives by the Taliban.
Adm. William Fallon, head of U.S. Central Command, which oversees operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan, has been lobbying since last spring to shift troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. I suspect that Bhutto’s assassination will give him the leverage that he needs to overrule Gen. David Petraeus and make that happen. Improvements in Iraq have been astounding, but commanders there have complained about having the troops shifted around within the country—they would prefer that they get to know an area well and remain for a while to keep it stable, which makes one wonder how the movement of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan will affect Iraq. This could be the pacifier the Democrats have been praying for—the thing that will quiet their constituencies who charge they have not kept their word regarding getting the troops out of Iraq, while allowing them to maintain appearances as supporters of democracy and the War on Terrorism.
But the situation calls for diplomacy more than anything else. One can only hope that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has a little magic left in her bag of tricks.