Sunday, January 27, 2008
News, In this Issue...

The first-ever Sunday Paper Super Tuesday Challenge

More than 20 states head to the polls on Feb. 5, including our own. Who do you think is going to win?

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By Stephanie Ramage

To give our readers a balanced slate of Feb. 5’s “Tsunami Tuesday” presidential primary predictions, we went to opposite ends of the spectrum, getting the predictions of conservative political consultant Phil Kent as well as those of Atlanta Rollergirls Roller Derby League player Hot Legs Hooligan (aka Sara Riney), a self-described “way-far-left liberal.”

Too dicey, you say? These people may be projecting their wishes, ever so subtly and inadvertently, into their best guesses, right? Maybe, but with that in mind, we also asked more than 40 political science and history professors from public and private schools across the nation to give us their best guesses as to how “Tsunami Tuesday,” the day that 22 states hold primary elections, will turn out. Only six were brave enough to publicly risk their reputations on our little wager, and they adamantly stipulated that their picks be considered educated guesses, not expert predictions and certainly not personal preferences. They admitted that even guessing is tough this year.

“On both the Democratic and Republican sides, the standard coalitions have been utterly thrown into flux in unprecedented ways,” says Shane Hamilton, an assistant history professor at the University of Georgia.

Or as political scientist Ron Rapoport at the College of William & Mary puts it: “This year is so unpredictable that only fools, academics and journalists are willing to make prognostications—and some of us fit into more than one of those categories. In any case, our errors will soon be forgotten and we will trumpet our successes."

Errors are bound to happen. There are some unknowns as we go to press: The Florida primary on Jan. 29 may well determine whether Republican Rudy Giuliani is still in the race in a viable way on Feb. 5, so some of our guessers noted contingencies for him. The South Carolina Democratic primary is also still ahead of us at press time. Three of the Feb. 5 contests—those in Idaho, Kansas, and New Mexico—are Democrat primaries only. But upon reviewing our guessers’ picks, some overwhelmingly common conclusions emerge:

• The Democratic race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton is far too close to call, with Obama our prognosticators’ pick in 13 states and Clinton slated to win nine. Especially when thinking toward the general election next November and considering electoral votes, it's tight.
• Georgia unanimously goes for Obama on the Democratic ticket and almost entirely for Republican Mike Huckabee on the Republican side (thanks to the expected large evangelical vote).Huckabee, winning in seven states, is only slightly ahead of Sen. John McCain, who wins in six. Even considering electoral votes for next fall, it’s close. Romney is a close third with wins in four states, and late starter Giuliani wins only New York and New Jersey.

Of course, the November General Election is still 11 months away, and even after “Tsunami Tuesday” there will still be 21 primaries to go before the presidential nominees are picked by the Democrats in August and the Republicans in September. A lot can happen between now and then. SP

To start your own office primary pool or to try your hand at predicting the outcome of what some are calling “the mini-general election,” fill out our form here. The reader whose picks are closest to the actual results of Feb. 5 will get his mug in our paper with some fairly nice words underneath.