Sunday, October 26, 2008
News, In this Issue..., Politics
Election guide 2008
The Sunday Paper examines Atlanta’s House and Senate races, explains three proposed Constitutional amendments, and looks at how Georgia may vote in the presidential contest
Who'll win Georgia?
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.)
EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)
Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesBy Stephanie Ramage
In 2004, President George W. Bush, a Republican, carried 133 of Georgia’s 159 counties. His Democratic opponent, John Kerry, attracted a majority of votes in urban counties like DeKalb and Fulton, and in rural counties with large black populations.
Charles Bullock, a political scientist at the University of Georgia, doesn’t expect that to change a lot as Republican John McCain faces Democrat Barack Obama on Nov. 4.
“Everything that is Democrat will remain Democrat,” says Bullock. “So where can Democrats chip away at GOP wins? Some metro Atlanta counties are becoming more diverse. Rockdale might change [to Democrat]. Possibly Henry.”
Bullock says that there may be some “Black Belt” counties—counties in Middle and South Georgia that have larger black populations than the counties to the north and south—that could go into the Democrat column if blacks voters go to the polls.
Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, agrees.
“In 2004, Bush carried Georgia by 17 points, but I think Obama can do considerably better than Kerry,” he says. “What we do know about Georgia is that African-American voter registration is way up, so that could make a difference. That’s going to help Obama in Georgia, but not enough to carry Georgia.”
Nationally, RealClearPolitics.com averaged the results of 14 polls in mid-October, including CNN, FOX, Gallup, Reuters, Rasmussen and others, and found Obama leading McCain by more than 7 points.
Georgia’s election booths are expected to see far more first-time voters than usual. So in this special Election Guide, The Sunday Paper reviews the referendums and U.S. Senate and Congressional candidates voters can expect to see on the ballot. SP –Stephanie Ramage